McCann Erickson’s Robert Coen says that’s better than his earlier prediction. Local, however, is not doing as well as projected.
One of advertising’s chief prognosticators sees national spot TV sales outpacing his earlier predictions for 2006, while local spot isn’t doing as well as predicted.
Those were among the findings presented by Robert J. Coen, senior vice president, director of forecasts, McCann Erickson, this morning in New York.
He said he sees national spot in 2006 beating his prediction of 8.5% made in December and now expects the category to finish up 10% from last year.
But he’s lowered his prediction of 4% growth for local spot to 3.1%.
His new numbers for 2006 are:
- The Big Four TV networks: +6.5%
- National spot: +10%
- Local spot: +3.1%
- Cable: +4.5%
- Syndication: +5.5%
That amounts to a total of +6.4%, Coen said, “not outstanding considering it’s a political and Olympics year.ÃƒÆ’Ã‚Â¢ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚Â¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
He also detailed spot results for first-quarter 2006 compared to the same quarter last year. They included:
- Auto: 0%
- Food: -9%
- Movies: +7
- Toiletries: -31%
- Drugs: -6%
- Beverages/snacks: -11%
- Restaurants: +11%
Coen also cited some subcategories with impressive gains in spot as compared to national sales:
- Computers: +128% (spot); 32% (national)
- Telecoms: +35%; +17%
- Apparel: +104%; -3%
- Insurance: +34%; +24%
- Brokers & mutual funds: +171%; +5%
“The telecommunications and insurance categories are undergoing tremendous competition,ÃƒÆ’Ã‚Â¢ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚Â¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â he added.
Venturing a look further ahead, Coen said that total U.S. advertising in 2007 would be up 5.8% to $303 billion. While next year has no Olympics or major political activity, he said, “We expect postponed advertising increases could reappear and offset the normal off-year slowdown.ÃƒÆ’Ã‚Â¢ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚Â¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
To read Coen’s full report, click here.