The consensus, an ongoing compilation of forecasts and revisions from the Big 4 forecasters Dentsu, WPP’s GroupM, IPG Mediabrands’ Magna, and Publicis Media’s Zenith units — improved to an 11.7% expansion in global ad spending vs. +10.6% when GroupM and Magna published their most recent updates in June.
With Dentsu weighing in as the last — and most pessimistic — of the major agency holding company forecast updates, Madison Avenue’s global consensus outlook has dropped to an average 6.2% decline for 2020, and a 7.3% increase in 2021. For the U.S. ad economy, the consensus outlook drops to -4.4% in 2020 and a 4.3% expansion in 2021.
BIA today revised its local advertising forecast. “In the U.S., the economic impact could evolve in a few different ways. We could see a relatively quick rebound beginning once the health impact is more quantified, a slower rebound over a longer period or a decline into a recession. Given the significant steps taken by government officials and agencies to minimize the spread of the virus and what has happened in other countries, we believe we are looking at a two to three-month period to stabilize the epidemic.”