BIA/Kelsey

The firm expects U.S. social ad revenue to grow at an annual rate of 18.6% per year. BIA/Kelsey also forecast that locally targeted social ad revenue will grow 26.4% annually, from $1.1 billion in 2012 to $3.6 billion in 2017.

BIA/Kelsey estimates that retransmission consent fees accounted for 6.5% of station revenue in 2012 and expects that percentage to grow to 9.5% this year.

U.S. mobile local advertising revenue is expected to grow at a rate of about 49% per year to hit $9.1 billion by 2017, according to a new forecast from BIA/Kelsey.

Online revenue will reach $818 million by 2017, while the industry’s combined total revenue will reach $17 billion by 2017, according to BIA/Kelsey’s first “Investing In Radio Market Report” released today.

That’s up from $1.32.5 billion in 2012. According to BIA/Kelsey, national brands accounted for nearly one-third of total U.S. local media ad spending last year. Digital media grows from 17.4% in 2012 to 27.6% in 2017.

Consumers are maturing in their smartphone usage, and while it may be a critical turning point for mobile advertising, those ads must move beyond the simple banner. “Ads with code that can change and adapt in a particular situation” will be key, digital veteran Bill Gross told attendees at the ILM West conference on Tuesday.

BIA Kelsey forecasts U.S. social media ad revenues to reach $9.2 billion in 2016, up from $4.6 billion in 2012, a compound annual growth rate of 19.2 percent. According to the fall update to its U.S. Local Media Forecast, the local segment of U.S. social media advertising revenues will grow from $1.1 billion in 2012 to $3 billion in 2016. “The year 2012 can be viewed as social advertising’s ‘coming of age,’” said Jed Williams, program director, Social Local Media, BIA Kelsey.

Somewhat in line with lackluster economic projections, estimates are that overall local media revenues are expected to rise only at a 2.1% rate over the next four years. But newer local digital media — part of that overall pie — will grow by double-digit percentages. BIA/Kelsey forecasts that U.S. local media advertising revenues will rise to $147.1 billion by 2016.

BIA/Kelsey’s Mark Fratrik will size up the changing local TV revenue outlook as part of a free NetNewsCheck webinar on Wednesday, “Broadcast Strategies: How Digital Can Drive Your Revenue in 2013.”

Research firm BIA/Kelsey expects the deals industry to generate $3.6 billion this year, 86.9% over 2011, followed by a 23% increase in 2013.

Retail marketers are expected to spend a total of $26.8 billion on local advertising in 2013, with $4.2 billion of that going to online media, according to a new forecast from BIA/Kelsey.

While multicasting is still in its infancy, a growing number of the D2 and D3 channels have turned into new revenue streams, accounting for about 3% of station ad money, according to BIA/Kelsey. The biggest earners are broadcast networks that don’t have a full-power home, but multicast-only nets like This TV, Live Well, Antenna TV, Bounce TV and Me-TV are creating their own growing niches as well.

Local digital media revenues will climb at a modest double-digit rate this year — with online video and mobile search two of the biggest gainers.  Overall, BIA/Kelsey’s report expects all local media to hit $133 billion in 2012 — as per its March report — down from a $136 billion estimate.

According to BIA/Kelsey’s Media Ad View reports, local ad spending will experience a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% between 2011 and 2016, with revenues climbing from around $132 billion to more than $150 billion. Mobile and online will account for the largest increase in local ad spending, nearly doubling from $11.1 billion in 2011 to $21.8 billion in five years.

That multi-station transaction, plus two other TV station deals, were submitted to the FCC for its approval during the week ending April 2, according to BIA/Kelsey.

Local advertising is traditionally slower to rebound than national, and indeed the recovery has hit a hiccup at the local level. Spending actually fell 2.4 percent last year, according to a new report from BIA/Kelsey. The research company’s chief economist, Mark Fratrik, talks about why local advertising fell last year, why he revised his forecast downward, and what to expect from local digital advertising over the next few years.

Sales of five low-power TV stations in two markets were submitted to the FCC for its approval during the weeks ending Feb. 20 and Feb. 27, according to BIA/Kelsey.

Stocks of publicly held local media companies performed worse last year than the overall stock market, falling 18.7%, according to BIA/Kelsey’s Local Media Index. The LMI tracks the local media sector, with a market capitalization of $2.2 trillion, to better reveal underlying dynamics in both secular and cyclical industry trends.

The Montgomery, Ala., test unites broadcast and cable, shows high engagement during interactive programming and a 20% click-through rate to Web content.

The advisory firm’s Digital Strategies for Broadcasting service has been renamed Video Local Media and refocused to concentrate on the business and technology strategies in local video networks, devices and content market segments.

The media adviser expects U.S. spending on deals — including daily deals, instant deals and flash sales — to grow from $873 million in 2010 to $4.2 billion in 2015. In March, the firm had pegged 2015 deals spending at $3.9 billion.

A new report says small and medium-size businesses will continue to shift marketing dollars away from traditional outlets to more measured and emerging media. By 2015, the group will be spending 30% of their budgets in the so-called traditional realm — down from 52% last year, according to BIA/Kelsey.

The NAB-commissioned economic impact study also finds 2.52 million jobs attributable to local TV and radio stations every year.

That’s up from $5.1 billion last year and the research also says that by 2015 30% of search volume will be local.

BIA/Kelsey’s five-year outlook for social media advertising is dominated by display ads on Facebook.

Political campaigns and national advertising drove the 2010 total to to $19.4 billion. Online and digital revenues are projected to reach $890 million by 2015.

In dozens of markets, ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC are found on the digital subchannels of full-power stations. The Big Four-D2 affiliations work for the networks and they work for the stations, which might otherwise fill subchannels with second-tier broadcast networks like CW or MNT or one of the myriad start-up networks like ThisTV, LATV, RTN or TheCoolNetwork.

BIA/Kelsey’s new forecast expects nearly a doubling of revenue in that time span from 2010’s $21.7 billioin. Overall local advertising is likely to reach $153.5 billion in 2015.

The new offering is focused on the growing significance of social platforms in local media. The company also forecasts the total digital advertising market will hit $23 billion this year.

BIA/Kelsey, a research and advisory firm covering local media, has introduced a new Local Media Index based on market capitalization of publicly held local media companies. The online index, which allows users to compare the performance of local media companies against the economy as a whole, covers market segments including radio, broadcast television, cable television, Yellow Pages, online local, outdoor advertising and diversified local media organizations.

The revised estimate is a 17% increase over the 2009 total for stations. It sees a 8% drop next year due to the lack of political ad money.

BIA/Kelsey research found that about 92% of businesses that offer discounts through daily deals sites landed “quality customers” who typically spend about 60% more than the deal’s initial value, and Web companies are rushing in to capitalize on the trend.

As local news and information become the hot topics on the Web, an increasing number of websites, including AOL’s Patch and local search company Fwix, are vying to become go-to sources in the local space.

Yahoo Local VP Matt Idema calls the local mobile market “one of the most explosive areas of opportunity” today and highlights Yahoo’s new Placemaker Service, which features community news and shopper discounts.

With smartphone use steadily increasing in the United States, companies are preparing for the new opportunities that widespread use of mobile devices will bring.

Ad revenues on mobile devices are set to soar over the next five years as smartphones spread and consumer attachment only grows. BIA/Kelsey projects revenues came in at $491 million last year, and are headed towards $2.9 billion in 2014.

Participants at a BIA/Kelsey webinar emphasize that new local businesses prefer social networking sites and other new media outlets for their ad buys. And that preference is only going to grow as mobile devices increase in penetration.