Local TV broadcasters could see a 3.4% decline in core advertising in the next year and a half, according to a report from Moody’s Investors Service. Core advertising revenues — which excludes political advertising — have seen “demand under pressure as audiences shift their media consumption to OTT streaming video services and advertisers and agencies reallocate their budgets to digital media,” the report says.
The cannabis business presents strong opportunities for broadcast’s core advertising, but it’s a legal and regulatory minefield. Still, there’s hope broadcasters can get a much-needed safe harbor to accept ads for properly vetted CBD and marijuana products via banking legislation in the Senate.
TVNewsCheck’s prescient editor, Harry Jessell, asks his infallible Magic 8-Ball to reveal how 2019 will unfold for various aspects of the television business, including core advertising, political advertising, retrans, mergers, FCC ownership caps, Big-4 duopolies and ATSC 3.0. He then expounds on the answers since, while all-knowing, the 8-Ball is notoriously terse.
Pivotal Research Group estimates that traditional, linear local TV broadcast advertising — excluding political ad revenues — will sink 2.2% in 2017, to $15 billion. This will be followed by another 4% decline in 2018 to $14.4 billion; a 4.2% decline in 2019 to $13.8 billion; a 4.5% drop to $13.2 billion in 2020; and a 4.7% pullback to $12.6 billion in 2021.