Netflix’s $23 billion in TV production commitments is based on higher levels of subscriber growth — and could spell trouble for the big streamer in the near term, says Pivotal Research Group. At the same time, there could be additional problems when it comes to competitors continuing to ramping up content spend — also into the billions — and taking on big losses, says Jeffrey Wlodarczak, media analyst for Pivotal.
With most of the major distributors reporting, analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak of Pivotal Research Group said his scorecard shows cable blowing away expectations for adding broadband subscribers at the same time pay TV subs are declining. Second-quarter U.S. net new broadband subs (including some private operators) rose 350% year over year to 1.1 million, Wlodarczak said in a research note Friday.
In 2017, News Viewing Rose, Sports Fell
Obsession with politics propelled news viewing, already a sizable portion of live and same-day TV universe, to a 12% gain in 2017 compared with 2016. Sports programming, once thought to be impervious, declined 6% last year even when the Rio Olympics are taken out of the year-to-year comparison. The findings are contained in a new report by Pivotal Research analyst Brian Wieser.
Pivotal Research Group estimates that traditional, linear local TV broadcast advertising — excluding political ad revenues — will sink 2.2% in 2017, to $15 billion. This will be followed by another 4% decline in 2018 to $14.4 billion; a 4.2% decline in 2019 to $13.8 billion; a 4.5% drop to $13.2 billion in 2020; and a 4.7% pullback to $12.6 billion in 2021.
Domestic ad revenue in 2017 is on track to increase 4% to 5% in 2017, thanks to growth from internet-based companies, according to Pivotal Research Analyst Brian Wieser. A group of 10 large web firms, including Google, Amazon and Expedia, increased their spending on sales and marketing by a median growth rate of 24% in the most recent quarter, he said in a note to investors.
Pivotal Research Group analyst Brian Wieser downgrades the entire publicly traded advertising sector in a note to clients today. “With reduced price targets, we continue to rate each of them ‘Hold,’” he says,.“challenges that became much more visible by the middle of last year are likely to compress expansion in years ahead vs. prior expectations.”
Exclusives
During April, 82.3% of homes watched CBS, followed by 79.8% of homes watching each of ABC and NBC and 74.4% of homes watching Fox. In the year-ago period, the figures were 83.9% for CBS, 82.8% for ABC, 83.3% for NBC and 79.5% for Fox.
Although scripted/unscripted TV program viewing has faced recent challenges — generally down by mid-single digit percentages across many networks — sports programming continues to fare a bit better. For the year so far, Pivotal Research Group reports that year-to-date, national TV sports programming viewing is off just 1%.
Some cable networks from major TV cable groups continue to struggle — losing high percentages of their respective subscriber bases. Nielsen’s April subscriber figures showed declines for Viacom’s Spike (7.2%) and CMT (10.4%), according to Pivotal Research Group. Spike will be rebranded as the Paramount Network, one of a core six networks new Viacom president/CEO Bob Bakish said the company is focused on.
Total TV viewing — boosted by OTT service and Internet-connected TV — grew on a total day basis in October. There was a 2% gain in average household viewing and a 1.2% hike among 18-49 viewing. Primetime viewing showed smaller hikes — 0.4% among household viewing and a 0.3% decline in 18-49 viewing.
Total commercial TV impressions among 18-49 viewers continue to climb as a result of still-rising commercial advertising loads for most TV networks. C3 impressions (the average commercial rating plus three days of time-shifted viewing) among 18-49 viewers grew 3.2% in the third quarter of this year over the same period a year ago, according to analysis from Pivotal Research Group.
Commercial advertising loads per hour continued to rise in August — up 2.4% — with total TV commercial impressions up slightly at just under 1%. The average number of minutes per hour devoted to advertising grew to 10.9 from 10.6 in August 2015, according to Brian Wieser, senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group.
Political advertising on local TV is now estimated to total under $3 billion for the year, according to one media analyst — lower than early projections. Brian Wieser, senior research analyst for Pivotal Research Group, says: “If we assume that spending might slow to end up 20% to 30% over 2014 levels — or around 10% over 2012 levels — total spending would end up under $3 billion on a full-year basis.”
The big four broadcast networks continue to dominate the industry’s traditional Nielsen reach measures — even as some erosion has occurred. In July, broadcast networks had between 76% and 82% reach in the U.S. — reach defined here as homes watching each network for at least one minute in the month, according to Pivotal Research Group.
New data from Pivotal Research Group shows TV watching was up 2.6% in average household viewing and 1% among 18-49-year-old viewers in July, while 8.5% of that group’s usage came via Internet-connected TV devices.
As advertisers and agencies wrap up their 2016-17 upfront negotiations, they might want to consider an analysis released this morning by an influential Wall Street analyst reviewing changes in the U.S. audience reach of Nielsen-rated TV networks. While ratings continue to serve as the currency that are the basis of most TV advertising deals, big TV advertisers still use media plans that seek to optimize the reach of viewers in the TV universe.
National TV’s hourly advertising commercial time continues to rise. In April 2016, analysis of Nielsen data from Pivotal Research Group shows that advertising loads grew nearly 2% to 10.7 minutes per hour over April 2015 for 18-49 viewers in the Nielsen C3 metric, the average minute commercial rating plus three days of time-shifted viewing.
A research report from Pivotal Research Group finds local grows by low single digits from a year earlier, while network and cable were up 5%-6%. The fastest growing major medium was internet advertising, which rose 20%.
National TV advertising for fourth-quarter 2015 has grown 2% according to Pivotal Research Group senior analyst Brian Wieser, who attributes this to many factors including new ad categories with high media spending from daily fantasy sports marketers as well as pent-up demand from budgets not allocated earlier in the year.
People are still watching as much TV as ever. They’re just watching it in different ways. That’s the finding of a new report from Pivotal Research Group, which finds that TV viewership is surprisingly stable, despite the many new options now available.
TV ratings have been falling for years, and of late that slide has become even sharper. You’d think this would be causing advertisers to rethink their TV budgets, as they look for those lost viewers through other media. You’d be wrong. A new report from Pivotal Research Group delves into the relationship between TV ratings and advertising and finds that, despite the increasing declines for TV ratings, it’s not hurting the medium’s standing among advertisers.
The U.S. advertising market is expected to maintain its modest low single-digit percentage growth rate over the near term — with the TV ad market gaining less. Brian Wieser, senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, estimates the growth rate of 2.5% will continue for the U.S. advertising market — excluding Olympic and political ad spending. The longer-term forecast is that the U.S. ad market will grow 3.1% on average through 2019.
National TV Ad Forecast Gains Momentum
National TV advertising may be taking a surprising turn — slightly upwards. First-quarter estimates are tracking 3% higher, hitting $10.9 billion, excluding comparisons which included Olympics advertising spending of a year ago (up 1.4% including those results).
Weiser Sees Upfront Prices Rising 8%
Brian Weiser, an analyst for Pivotal Research Group, says that while “our pricing model indicates around 8% CPM increases,” the pricing will depend by how much inventory the networks make available and will not necessarily produce commensurate increases in revenue.
Like so many other media, spot TV is feeling the squeeze from digital. In 2015, spending on the medium will be up only 1.6% compared to 2014, according to the latest forecast from Pivotal Research Group. By comparison, Pivotal predicts local digital spending will rise 9.2%. Advertisers will be moving money from spot to the Web, a trend retailers have been embracing this holiday season.
2014 Looking Like Better Year For Ad Growth
The outlook for agency growth this year is moderately brighter than the growth achieved last year. Organic revenue growth, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and currency fluctuations for the major industry holding companies, is expected to average 5% in 2014, versus the estimated 3.3% gain for 2013.
Brighter Outlook For The Media Economy
Boosted by an unexpectedly strong first half for national advertising, the media economy is picking up some steam. A new forecast from Pivotal Research Group raises the outlook for 2013 ad spending, following months of mixed news about the U.S. economy. Ad spending will grow at a rate of 1.8% this year, up from a projection of 1.4% in April. That’s also ahead of the 1.2% growth rate for 2012.
The year hasn’t gotten off to a great start for advertising. Spending was up just 0.3% during the first half of the year. But the pace will pick up, if modestly, in the second half, and if the U.S. economy continues to improve, gains will be much higher over the next three years. A new forecast from Pivotal Research Group predicts that ad spending in the final two quarters of this year will rise by 0.7% driven by gains in national spending.
Superstorm Could Cost Media Biz $500M
Hurricane Sandy is expected to cost the media industry as much as $500 million, according to a new report out this week from Pivotal Research Group.
Behind The Slower-Than-Expected Recovery
The media economy is getting a nice infusion of dollars from political and Olympic spending that will carry through the end of the year. But that boost won’t extend much beyond then. Brian Wieser, senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, talks about the pace of the recovery, the outlook for print and the potential consequences of the fiscal cliff.
A Grimmer Outlook For U.S. Ad Spending
During first quarter ad spending got back on track following a disappointing fourth quarter, and many analysts expected that to set the tone for a better year. Alas, it looks as though first quarter was little more than a false start. The continued economic uncertainty and some disappointing second-quarter data has prompted one forecaster to revise its earlier outlook for 2012 ad spending downward.
CBS Non-Ad TV Revs Will Surpass TV Ad Rev
One Wall Street analyst sees CBS becoming less dependent on advertising sales in five years — with TV advertising representing less than 50% of its revenues from all its TV businesses.
Big 4 To Get 8% Higher CPMs At Upfront
Pivotal Research Group today released a report predicting that the cost for a thousand impressions (CPMs) in primetime will increase 8% for ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC when they convene with advertisers this spring for their annual upfront selling ritual.
