SNL Kagan’s updated industry retransmission fee projections also put this year’s fee total at $3.3 billion. The projections for growth are based on rising per-month sub fees for TV station owners in recent negotiations, as well as industry consolidation. Reverse retrans is seen climbing from $1.02 billion in 2014 to $2.25 billion in 2019.
Barry Diller’s streaming service threatens the retrans revenue that the broadcasters earn. A new report puts a number on those potential losses: $27.4 billion.
A Los Angeles federal court is ordering Alki David’s Aereokiller to stop its streaming of broadcast signals to the Internet and mobile devices, delivering a victory to the TV networks as they seek to protect their retransmission revenue streams.
TV station owners’ retrans fee revenues could reach $5.50 billion by 2017 and eclipse $6 billion by 2018, versus the $2.36 billion projected for 2012, according to new research from SNL Kagan.
One panelist at the SNL Kagan gathering says retrans will total $6 billion by 2020. That will boost the new revenue stream to around 25% of total TV station revenues, up from only 2% in 2005 and 11% in the current year.
The contract renewals of NBC, CBS and Fox preserve for another nine years the mutually prosperous relationship between pro football and TV broadcasting. The extensions send a wonderful message about broadcasting and the network-affiliate partnership at the heart of it. They say that broadcasting is here to stay and will continue to be the dominant television medium. And it’s all thanks to retransmission consent. Let’s hope the FCC doesn’t mess that up.
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NBC should begin receiving retrans payments for its 10-owned stations in 2013, which should have Comcast paying itself handsomely. Comcast delivers the NBC-owned stations into more homes than any other operator.
Despite fewer estimated multichannel subscribers, SNL Kagan projects that higher fees will boost station retransmission consent revenue totals by more than $2.5 billion over the next six years.
At least in the near long-term, CBS appears confident it can continue to grow ad dollars even as ratings decline. CBS CFO Joseph Ianniello said Tuesday the network delivers largely unmatched reach, along with an environment that advertisers covet, and they will pay a premium for both. But he was much more bullish on CBS’s ability to grow with non-advertising streams, notably collecting carriage fees for its local stations and its affiliate body.
Leslie Moonves, CBS president-CEO, tells analysts that the company’s retrans money should hit $250 million in two years. But he didn’t say how much it expects to get from its affiliates in reverse compensation.