SNL Kagan

SNL Kagan projects U.S. TV stations will see a 6.5% decline in ad revenue in 2017 to $21.38 billion. Midterm political advertising and Olympic revenues are forecast to buoy 2018, however, where Kagan sees a 9.6% climb to $23.4 billion in its Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook.

New SNL Kagan research shows broadband expectations and more optimistic video picture drive improved forecast.

An analysis of station trading shows the majority of second quarter deals were the result of spinoffs from Nexstar’s acquisition of Media General.

SNL Kagan projects that figure will grow to $11.6 billion by 2022. Reverse comp payments to networks this year will total $2.1 billion, up 35% from 2015.

The $4.61 billion total is almost entirely due to the $4.6 billion deal by Nexstar to acquire Media General.

A new report from SNL Kagan finds combined TV and radio station M&A in the quarter came to $486.8 million.

The quarter’s top deal announcement by far was the possible next giant leap in TV consolidation, Media General Inc.’s $3.10 billion acquisition of Meredith Corp.

SNL Kagan updated retransmission fee projections see a 63% increase from $6.3 billion this year while reverse comp payments to networks could increase from $1.65 billion in 2015 to $3.69 billion in 2021.

SNL Kagan researchers and broadcasters at the SNL Kagan conference in New York agreed that retrans revenue — projected at $6.3 billion this year and $7.2 billion next year — will continue to grow at least through 2021.

New SNL Kagan data shows just $37.1 million in TV station transactions in the first three months of 2015. The company says volume could remain at lower levels through the rest of the year because of the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming FCC incentive auction and its tantalizing potential for huge payouts to station owners.

A new SNL Kagan analysis says U.S. TV station owners’ retrans fees are expected to reach $9.3 billion by 2020, versus the projected level of $4.9 billion this year. Reverse comp will also rise, but stations should still post net retrans growth.

A total of 164 TV stations changed hands through the first half of 2014, with an average price of $46.5 million. That total was down from the same period last year.

Retrans fees paid by basic cable networks are still a fraction of overall network/programming carriage fees paid by cable networks. But those retrans fees are expected to rise quickly. SNL Kagan says broadcast fees amounted to 8.9% or $3.3 billion of the $37.3 billion in total revenue of cable operators pay basic cable networks and regional sports networks.

Liberty Media saw its profits surge in 2013, surpassing Disney to become the most profitable media and entertainment company of the year. Liberty ended the year with net income of about $8.99 billion, enough to snatch the crown of most profitable media company from Disney, which came in third also behind 21st Century Fox, according to an SNL Kagan report.

SNL Kagan’s updated industry retransmission fee projections also put this year’s fee total at $3.3 billion. The projections for growth are based on rising per-month sub fees for TV station owners in recent negotiations, as well as industry consolidation. Reverse retrans is seen climbing from $1.02 billion in 2014 to $2.25 billion in 2019.

A high-profile battle over fast-growing retrans fees, the new spotlight on digital rights and a more vocal FCC (particularly in the ownership caps arena) have the industry nervously looking ahead to see if expectations regarding retrans revenue growth may have to be adjusted. Here’s a look at what’s at stake and how the dollars may move.

Ohio, Florida and Virginia got the biggest share of the projected $2.6 billion spent on local TV, most of that in the final weeks. Peter Leitzinger, analyst at SNL Kagan, talks about the impact of Citizens United, how 2012 fared compared to his earlier expectations and what political ads have done for radio.

TV station owners’ retrans fee revenues could reach $5.50 billion by 2017 and eclipse $6 billion by 2018, versus the $2.36 billion projected for 2012, according to new research from SNL Kagan.

News Corp., which has historically followed Disney in the rankings of media/entertainment companies with the largest quarterly revenue and profits, saw its bottom line plummet in its fiscal fourth quarter, falling off SNL Kagan’s list of top 25 media earners altogether.

Research group SNL Kagan notes that even with $45 billion in cash on hand, Google probably doesn’t have the money to blanket the nation in its fiber. But it can cover enough ground to severely disrupt the pay TV business with a superior ISP/video solution.

Third quarter 2011 retrans fees per subscriber range as high as 61 cents for Univision, followed by Sinclair at 49 cents.

The media and communications business research firm’s U.S. TV station database shows the total number of live over-the-air broadcast channels for the 1,726 full-power digital stations jumped to 4,552 at the end of 2011 from 2,518 at year-end 2010.

Apple Inc. remained the king of the new media mountain in terms of revenue and profits by an overwhelming margin in the September quarter. It did so, however, on revenue that contracted from the June quarter.

A new SNL Kagan report shows just how fat cable networks have become — more than 30 networks have margins of 50% or more topped by Nickelodeon, with a 64.6% margin and the Food Network at 60.5%. So, when your local cable operator gags on your asking $1 per sub per month  and says he can’t afford anything close to that, show him the SNL Kagan report and point out that it isn’t his neighborhood broadcasters who are getting rich off of his subscribers, but those remote cable networks that, by the way, only have a fraction of the audience that you have.

By demanding reverse comp — essentially half of affiliates’ retrans revenue — the Big Four broadcast networks and Univision have tapped a new revenue stream that will grow from $146 million this year to $1.3 billion in 2015, according to a new analysis from SNL Kagan. But there is “good news” for affiliates forced to pay.

Although cable system operators have combated new technologies and services over the last several years, they have continued to grow higher per-subscriber revenue and steady cash flow. Over the last four years, revenues at seven multiple system operators have risen at an annual rate of 7.3% to $70.95 billion from $53.57 billion in 2006, says media researcher SNL Kagan.

Some bad news for the cable and satellite companies that have been pooh-poohing the possibility that millions of subscribers will cut the pay TV cord. Researchers at SNL Kagan say they expect 12.1 million homes in 2015 will receive TV shows and movies from Internet services such as Netflix instead of a traditional pay TV provider.

Panelists say the state of the station groups this year is positive, with Sinclair’s David Amy summing up: “The business isn’t going in the wrong direction. It’s going in the right direction.”

Panelists debate the broadcast spectrum auction plan with broadcasters saying it could result in the restriction of free, accessible information provided by over-the-air TV stations. On the other side, the Wireless Association says more spectrum really is the answer to fulfilling the public’s growing demands for broadband wireless services.

Despite fewer estimated multichannel subscribers, SNL Kagan projects that higher fees will boost station retransmission consent revenue totals by more than $2.5 billion over the next six years.

Worldwide IPTV video providers will continue to see big growth results — as opposed to older cable and satellite TV providers, which have been slowing down. Subscriptions from IPTV (Internet-Protocol TV)-based companies — telco companies — will almost double in three years to 70 million from 30 million at the end of 2010, according to SNL Kagan.

SNL Kagan’s ongoing research into the TV station deal sector registers an uptick in deals year-to-date vs. 2009-10.