SNL Kagan projects U.S. TV stations will see a 6.5% decline in ad revenue in 2017 to $21.38 billion. Midterm political advertising and Olympic revenues are forecast to buoy 2018, however, where Kagan sees a 9.6% climb to $23.4 billion in its Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook.
New SNL Kagan research shows broadband expectations and more optimistic video picture drive improved forecast.
An analysis of station trading shows the majority of second quarter deals were the result of spinoffs from Nexstar’s acquisition of Media General.
SNL Kagan projects that figure will grow to $11.6 billion by 2022. Reverse comp payments to networks this year will total $2.1 billion, up 35% from 2015.
The $4.61 billion total is almost entirely due to the $4.6 billion deal by Nexstar to acquire Media General.
A new report from SNL Kagan finds combined TV and radio station M&A in the quarter came to $486.8 million.
The quarter’s top deal announcement by far was the possible next giant leap in TV consolidation, Media General Inc.’s $3.10 billion acquisition of Meredith Corp.
SNL Kagan updated retransmission fee projections see a 63% increase from $6.3 billion this year while reverse comp payments to networks could increase from $1.65 billion in 2015 to $3.69 billion in 2021.
SNL Kagan researchers and broadcasters at the SNL Kagan conference in New York agreed that retrans revenue — projected at $6.3 billion this year and $7.2 billion next year — will continue to grow at least through 2021.