U.S. ad spending

The U.S. ad market grew 3.1% in May versus the same month in 2018, according to the latest data from Standard Media Index. The U.S. Ad Market Tracker, a collaboration of SMI and MediaPost, slid slightly from April, falling 1.2% on a sequential basis, but May nonetheless posted the strongest index of media-buying demand for the month since SMI began tracking it in 2011.

Magna’s new outlook calls for digital to become the majority of U.S. ad spending some time this year. But the other side of that story is the erosion of TV’s share of ad spending. According to Magna, the U.S. TV advertising marketplace — with the exception of local growth in election years — is now in a permanent ad recession.

Interpublic’s Magna unit this morning revised its U.S. ad-spending growth forecast for 2018 up by half a percentage point to 5.5%. The release comes a day after Publicis Media CEO Steve King told investors his agency is poised to upgrade its outlook as well, given a stable macroeconomic outlook for the general economy. Magna now projects U.S. advertising will expand 5.5% to $197 billion.

The U.S. advertising marketplace grew only modestly in September — which nonetheless signals a healthy expansion, considering that it is posting off an August that included significant incremental spending by brands participating in the 2016 Summer Olympic Games, including NBC’s coverage of it.

Despite reports on a tightening of the so-called “scatter” marketplace heading into this year’s upfront network TV advertising negotiations, U.S. media-buying volume declined among the major ad agencies, according to the April edition of the Ad Market Tracker, a collaboration of MediaPost and Standard Media Index. While the national TV index dipped only two points from March to a 160 in April, it rose nine points from 151 in April 2015.

U.S. ad spending sank nearly 4% in the third quarter with outdoor, Spanish-language TV, radio and paid search showing growth — to $36 billion. Kantar Media says the quarter witnessed a 3.7% fall, with 16 of 22 different media types declining. The nine-month period was down 4% versus the same time period a year ago. Results do not include mobile and online video advertising, the media research company says. TV ad spending was down 3% — with broadcast network TV faring the best of all TV platforms, down 1% for the quarter.

Madison Avenue’s media spending declined in June, a month that historically begins a seasonal dip for the ad industry. If history continues to repeat itself, July and August will continue to erode until ad spending begins to expand again in September. The U.S. Ad Market Tracker fell three points to a 191 in June from a 194 in May.

In an off-Olympic and political year, ad spending is expected to fall. That makes it a bit harder to determine whether the media economy is actually becoming sluggish or if the decreases are just due to the tough comparisons from the previous year. This year it appears to be the former. Jon Swallen, chief research officer at Kantar Media, offers his take on why ad spending is down, whether it will rebound later this year, and why some traditional media are faring better than others.

The U.S. advertising market is expected to maintain its modest low single-digit percentage growth rate over the near term — with the TV ad market gaining less. Brian Wieser, senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, estimates the growth rate of 2.5% will continue for the U.S. advertising market — excluding Olympic and political ad spending. The longer-term forecast is that the U.S. ad market will grow 3.1% on average through 2019.

Revenue rises 0.7%, slowing after a strong first quarter. Blame the Winter Olympics in February, which stole money from 2Q budgets. Year to date, spending is up 3.1%.

Just weeks after one major agency forecast, Interpublic’s Magna Global unit, reduced its outlook for 2014 ad spending, another — Dentsu Aegis Network’s Carat — has upgraded it a smidge. And like Magna, Carat is optimistic the outlooks for 2015 will be even better.

Data based on actual media buys shows that Madison Avenue put the brakes on spending during the second quarter of the year. Total spending declined 1% during the second quarter, after rising 12% in the first quarter, thanks in part to a boost in spending related to the Sochi Winter Olympic Games.

Winter Olympics ad spending helped push up overall U.S. advertising nearly 6% for the first quarter. U.S. advertising revenue for the first three months of 2014 was $34.9 billion, with the Sochi games responsible for $600 million of incremental ad spend.

U.S. ad spending will grow a healthy 6% this year, led by World Cup, Winter Olympics and the midterm elections, according to Magna Global. Much of the improvement is tied to one-time events, such as the midterm election, this summer’s World Cup and February’s Winter Olympics. But the overall economy is looking better too.

Although the growth rate of digital video advertising has risen faster than the traditional TV ad market, TV will continue to outpace digital video in growth of actual adv revenue. This year, the TV ad market — broadcast and cable networks, syndication and local spot — will climb to $68.54 billion, adding 3.3%, from last year, according to eMarketer. At the same time, digital video will rise 42% to $5.96 billion.

It was a slog for sure, but ad spending did grow for the fourth straight year in 2013, despite tough comparisons to 2012. Revenue was up 0.9% for the full year, according to Kantar Media data released today, closing the year at $140.2 billion. The biggest gainer during 2013 was, no surprise, digital advertising.

U.S. total media ad spending in 2013 will be grow 3.8% to $171.33 billion, an increase of more than $6 billion from 2012, according to a new eMarketer report.

The media economy is not as healthy as the growth rate suggests. Buyers should watch consumer confidence for second-half clues. Jon Swallen, chief research officer at Kantar Media, talks about what to expect from the rest of the year, the relative health of the media economy and what’s working for traditional media.

Favorable year-ago comps and a whole bunch of additional NBA playoff games helped lift second quarter TV ad sales revenue by 6% to $18.4 billion, according to a new report from Kantar Media. Spot was down 3% to $3.3 billion. Overall, TV spending accounted for a little more than half (51%) of the $35.8 billion that was invested in all U.S. media in the quarter.

Though there have been some economic bright spots for the United States this year, including the decline in unemployment and rebound of the housing market, true recovery is still a ways off, and that’s apparently making companies reluctant to invest in advertising. A new forecast from GroupM slashes its outlook for U.S. ad growth in 2013 from 2.7% to 1.8%.

Spending by the nation’s biggest advertisers looks a lot like the U.S. economy as a whole: good, but far from great, and getting a nice lift from the technology sector and a resurgent auto industry. The 100 leading national advertisers spent an estimated $104.5 billion on U.S. advertising last year, up just 2.8% from 2011, according to Ad Age DataCenter’s analysis. That represented the lowest growth rate since the ad recovery began in 2010 and left total spending still shy of prerecession levels.

Things are looking up for the U.S. economy. May retail spending was up 0.6% a bigger gain than expected, and unemployment continues to drop. Those promising economic signs should eventually improve the outlook for U.S. ad spending this year, but it hasn’t quite happened yet. The latest forecast from Magna Global projects a 0.4% increase in U.S. ad revenue this year, to $155 billion.

Magna upgrades its 2014 outlook to 5.9% growth, up from 5.4% citing an improving ad economy as 2013 closes with advertisers increasingly optimistic about the direction of the country and Olympic ad sales gaining over the last Winter Games.

U.S. advertising is projected to grow 1.2% for 2013, with total media owner advertising revenues climbing to $176.3 billion. If the prediction is accurate, it would match 2012’s rate of growth, but still be 14% below the 2007 peak of $205 billion, wrote Pivotal senior analyst Brian Wieser in a report issued today.

The last half of last year began on a promising streak and then, instead of winding up with a bang, it went out with a whimper. It was if advertisers across the board pulled back on spending in the last three months of the year. Or it felt that way. Now the numbers are in, and they reveal just how much the ad economy slowed down in those last three month.

A new report from analyst Michael Nathanson for Nomura finds that when Olympics and political spending are stripped out, the U.S. media economy grew at a pace of 3.7% last year. It was up 4.3% when Olympics and political are included.

It will still be a couple weeks before the final ad spending numbers for 2012 are out. But several media have released their own numbers, and though forecasters kept lowering their outlooks for 2012 as the year went on, it seems advertising made some decent gains by the time the year finished out.

Strong revenues from the Summer Olympics, automobile, and U.S. political advertising helped push up global spending by 4.3% in the third quarter of 2012.

Total ad spending climbed 7.1% compared with the same period a year ago, according to a report from Kantar Media. The report closely tracks a report from Nielsen released days earlier.

U.S. advertising spending still hasn’t returned to the levels it attained in the frothy credit bubble economy during the middle of the last decade, and probably won’t for several more years, according to forecasts from four different research and analysis outfits.

Barclays Capital analyst Anthony DiClemente on Thursday cut his U.S. advertising growth forecast for 2012 and 2013. He now predicts 4% ad growth, down from 4.6 percent in 2012, and 1.9%, instead of 2.3%, in 2013 due to “the choppy economic data since our last update in April.”

ZenithOptimedia predicts U.S. total ad spending will rise 4.3% this year, up from an earlier prediction of 3.6%. And spot TV is hot, hot, hot, with the biggest increase over last year among all of TV and radio.

A Wall Street firm noted U.S. ad spending in the April-June period was below the first quarter, suggesting the ad market had a bumpy spring. Today, Nomura reported a 4.6% bump across all sectors in the second quarter, below the 5.8% in the first three months of the year.

During first quarter ad spending got back on track following a disappointing fourth quarter, and many analysts expected that to set the tone for a better year. Alas, it looks as though first quarter was little more than a false start. The continued economic uncertainty and some disappointing second-quarter data has prompted one forecaster to revise its earlier outlook for 2012 ad spending downward.

Despite the debt crisis in Europe, worldwide advertising continues to grow at a faster pace than U.S. advertising. Global ad spending increased by 3.1% during first quarter, according to Nielsen, compared to a 2.6% increase for the United States, based on Kantar Media figures. And forecasters are predicting that global spending will outpace the U.S. for the full year, despite the huge number of political ad dollars being spent stateside.

Kantar Media says U.S. advertising spending continues to slow down — just inching up 0.4% in the third quarter. For the first three months of the year, that puts U.S. advertising expenditures at $104.7 billion — a 1.5% rise

The growth in U.S. ad spending continued to slow in the second quarter of 2011, increasing 2.8% from the second quarter of 2010, according to a new report from Kantar Media. U.S. ad spending had increased 4.4% in the first quarter, the smallest rate of growth since ad outlays began rising again.