New projections from Kantar Media/CMAG show $2.4 billion in political spending to come to TV stations in 2018, up 14% from the 2014 midterms. Projections for cable are 41% growth from $600 million in 2014 to $850 million next year.
Kantar: Stations To See $2.4B Political In ’18
TV stations will likely garner $2.4 billion in political spending next year, according to newly released projections from Kantar Media/CMAG. That would be a 14% rise over the 2014 midterm election results: $2.1 billion.
The $2.4 billion will account for 62% of total political spend during the year. Cable will likely garner $850 million in 2018 versus $600 million in 2014, a 41% gain and 22% share.
And digital should pull in $600 million next year, a 16% share.
Local cable’s ability to target narrower geographic areas is much more strategic during midterm election years than Presidential election years, explained Steve Passwaiter, the Kantar/CMAG VP and GM. That’s because congressional districts don’t match up with DMAs.
Take, for example, the hotly contested special election for a U.S. Congress representative in Georgia’s 6th district earlier this year. “By no means was broadcast forsaken, but a pretty healthy share of the money went to local cable because that district only covered a fraction of the Atlanta DMA,” Passwaiter said. However, he noted, “local cable didn’t do all that well in the [last] Presidential race.”
Kantar’s TV station projections are lower than estimates from Kagan Media Research, which forecasts $2.58 billion in political spot spending in 2018, versus $2.42 billion in 2014.
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Comments (12)
kendra campbell says:
September 22, 2017 at 12:02 pm
$2.4 billion spent. $1.2 billion flushed.
Cheryl Thorne says:
September 22, 2017 at 12:19 pm
They better be on their knees hoping so, because core will be down 5-10% again..It’s a mature shrinking business..non growth…They better also hope Facebook, Amazion and others don’t do to them this year what they are doing to the NFL..You know at the end of the day..consumers and most of America could care less..It’s the corporate/stations suits living in their bubbles that care..That’s it!!!! L
Debra Rein says:
September 22, 2017 at 1:36 pm
Core down 5-10%? You must be with a horrible group of stations. Core is flat with digital growth. Sorry to break your spirits but there is no 5-10% loss in revenue.
Dan Levitt says:
September 22, 2017 at 1:24 pm
It’s going to be a lot less. Trump paved the way for cheap campaigns
James Boutin says:
September 22, 2017 at 4:08 pm
That’s funny Kantar estimated $2.6 billion for 2014…in 2014. Now its $2.1 bil. Guess they missed the mark. http://us.kantar.com/public-affairs/politics/2013/2014-political-media-projections/
Snead Hearn says:
September 22, 2017 at 5:25 pm
core down 5-10%? You would see many GM openings if that were the case. National is definitely struggling but in my markets local is flat to up +4 and national is down -5…. Political and retrains play a big part in the BCF cash flow but that still makes for a profitable business.
Dan Levitt says:
September 22, 2017 at 6:49 pm
there’s GM openings all the time…
Cheryl Thorne says:
September 23, 2017 at 8:19 am
MArtelxo92..I meant core time sales down 5-10%..Flat with Digital..that’s not good since expenses continue to rise…
Cheryl Thorne says:
September 23, 2017 at 8:22 am
Old School ..Exactly whats going to happen..It’s not a good business any longer and you will see many less GM’s and more hubbing with Station mgr/DOS’s and then the corporate suits will run News,which is a losing proposition , and Promotion controlled out of corporate.Get used to at best 15-20% margins
Cheryl Thorne says:
September 23, 2017 at 8:25 am
Is Kantar a public company?? If they had stock it’s going to be at an all-time low after this ridiculous prognostication
Dan Levitt says:
September 23, 2017 at 1:19 pm
Kantar should also project Punxsutawney Phil’s groundhog day Predictions and Super Bowl winner outcomes as CONTROLS in their studies – so WE KNOW if THEY KNOW what the hell they are talking about.
Jayson Siler says:
September 24, 2017 at 9:52 am
Total ignorance of the fact that almost all candidates are micro-targeting potential voters through digital channels. Local TV stations simply don’t have the ability to offer comparable granularity about the composition of their dwindling audiences.