Kaplan: Incentive Auction Doomed, Unless…

NAB spectrum guru Rick Kaplan warned Monday that the way the FCC is heading on its incentive auction planning, the auction will “almost certainly fail.”

And by “fail,” he said, “I mean there is either not enough participation to enable a basic, nationwide commercial wireless band plan, or an outcome that results in widespread harmful interferences among services.”

Kaplan made his comments at a Media Institute luncheon in Washington.

For the auction to succeed, he said, the FCC needs to make it “as easy as pie” by answering such basic questions for broadcasters that may wish to participate as: “Does the FCC want a volunteer in my market?; How much might I get paid?;  Where do I go to participate; and how exactly is it going to work?

“None of those questions have been answered, and the … clock … is ticking,” he emphasized.

The FCC has said it wants to hold the auction next year. The incentive auction is actually two auctions intended to reallocate up to 120 MHz of spectrum from the TV band to wireless broadband. The “reverse” auction, in which the FCC will buy spectrum from volunteer broadcasters; and the forward auction, in which it will sell the recovered spectrum to wireless carriers.

Broadcasters that have no interest in participating in the reverse auction worry that their services will be diminished by reorganization or repacking of the TV band that is incidental to the forward auction.

Even though NAB has been advocating a slow, methodical approach, Kaplan said, the association is eager to get past the auction as soon as possible.

“The last thing we want is this proceeding hanging over our heads any longer than it must,” he said. “Our aim is to see this auction done right and then we can get on with the business of serving our local communities in our traditional as well as new and innovative ways.”

Kaplan repeated four other steps that NAB has said are key to a successful auction.

• Lay out a number of nationwide repacking scenarios. This involves looking at options for repacking, and focusing in particular on the moving pieces in the more congested markets.
• From these scenarios, determine how many stations it needs to participate to achieve certain spectrum clearing targets, and where those stations must be. “Where do we really need volunteers?”
• Estimate how much it would, under each scenario, raise nationwide in a forward auction.

• Take its nationwide estimate and use those funds to ensure it entices volunteers in the markets where it really requires participants.