Multichannel Subs Seen Falling Through 2021

The increasing loss of traditional multichannel subscribers in the U.S. is further splintering a video landscape in which streamed bundles, online subscription services, self-aggregation and over-the-air delivery are playing more prominent roles, according to findings from &P Global Market Intelligence’s Kagan.

“Changing viewing habits point to mounting losses for traditional video services, and challengers are lining up to capitalize,” said Ian Olgeirson, research director, S&P Global Market Intelligence. “However, the operators are not without significant fortifications enabling expectations for preserving a majority share in the five-year outlook.”

The transformation has amplified the conditions for change and instability in the market, according to the latest segmentation of video delivery options among U.S. households. While households with a traditional multichannel subscription are positioned to remain in the solid majority in the five-year outlook, upward momentum lies firmly with alternative services; the combined account for a non-multichannel tally is on pace to exceed one quarter of occupied households in 2017 and peak one third by 2021.

The outlook through 2021 features:

• Accelerated declines of traditional multichannel subscriptions to 82.3 million, down 10.8 million households over five years.

• The emergence of virtual services from a niche pioneered by SlingTV and Playstation Vue to a mainstream option that accounts for nearly 11 million households. 

• The growth of households relying solely on over-the-top delivery of self-aggregated online content to reach nearly 18 million or 14% of occupied households.