It has been a wild, rocky ride, but Netflix, which ended its 15th year as a public company on Monday, is pacing ahead of Amazon as a dream investment.
Since ending its first day of trading in 2002 at an adjusted $1.20 per share, Netflix stock has gained 12,997 percent, to close Monday at $157.16.
Amazon, by comparison, gained 11,348 percent in the 15 years — accounting for splits — after it went public on May 15, 1997.
(Apple, with a 167 percent gain, wasn’t even close to these thoroughbreds.)
A $100 investment in Netflix would be worth $12,997 today, whereas a $100 in Amazon delivered $11,348 after its first 15 years.
That gives Netflix a 14.5 percent advantage.
To keep up, however, Netflix will have to match the 333 percent gain recorded by Amazon in years 15 through 20.
While Netflix’s performance over the 15 years is spectacular, it has not been without heart-stopping volatility. Shares plunged 35 percent on a single day — Oct. 25, 2011 — after the video streamer admitted to losing 800,000 subscribers in one quarter.
That same year, having climbed to an adjusted $42.68 in mid-July, Netflix entered 2012 nearly 80 percent lighter at $9.90.
S&P Global analyst Tuna Amobi has a “buy” on Netflix, citing a successful price hike, widening margins and “a much stronger international growth trajectory.”
Meanwhile, Morningstar’s Neil Macker considers the stock “overvalued,” siding with bears who fear Netflix is overpaying for content, has unprofitable international operations that could take years to fix and risks being undermined by changes in net-neutrality rules.