Slim Sitcom Pickings Among Fall’s Offerings

The Big Four networks are rolling out nine, new, half-hour sitcoms over the next month or so with grand hopes that each and every one will find large enthusiastic audiences.

But TV critics and media analysts say only a few have real potential to become primetime hits and stick around long enough to feed the off-net syndication pipeline and generate big profits for studios, cable networks and TV stations alike.

The consensus No. 1 pick to prosper is ABC Studios’ Black-ish, which will lead out of Modern Family on ABC on Wednesdays.

“The one that has probably the best shot is Black-ish,” says Bill Carroll, VP and director of programming at Katz Television Group. “It’s well written. It’s well cast. And it has the advantage of airing behind Modern Family.”

On the show, Anthony Anderson stars as a suburban dad who’s worried his family has lost too much of its African-American culture.

“Typically, family comedies that are accessible to kids, teens and adults have the best chance of accumulating 100 episodes,” says Shari Anne Brill, CEO of Shari Anne Brill Media, of the number of episodes traditionally sold into syndication. “Black-ish fits the bill.”

Of course, there are doubters. “Of the traditional sitcoms, I hope Black-ish succeeds,” says Robert Bianco, TV critic for USA Today. “It’s a great concept with a great cast. But the pilot episode isn’t funny enough. It has its work cut out for it.”

Bianco’s favorite comedy is Jane The Virgin, which is debuting on the CW on Oct. 13. Others speak highly of the show, too, but its hour length limits its appeal in off-net syndication, particularly among broadcasters.

The critics also point out that Twentieth Century Fox Television’s Modern Family may not help Black-ish. It did nothing for predecessors Super Fun Night and The Neighbors, they say.

The other show singled out as having real syndication potential is Sony Pictures Television’s and CBS Studios’ The McCarthys on CBS. It should benefit from airing on CBS’s strong Thursday lineup. The show debuts on Oct. 30, after CBS finishes its first season of Thursday Night Football.

The McCarthys is about a sports-obsessed family and counts among its cast Tyler Ritter, Joey McIntyre and Laurie Metcalf.

“CBS has such a successful track record with comedies,” says Brad Adgate, SVP and research director at Horizon Media. “So, if you’re looking at a show that can run for four seasons, if I had to pick one, The McCarthys has as good a shot as any.”

USA Today’s Bianco agrees with Adgate. “You don’t bet against CBS sitcoms,” says Bianco. “In the end, the show that may have the best chance of surviving is The McCarthys. It is on the strongest network and it has a great cast.”

Beyond those two, things get iffy. A couple more could survive, but only if they’re moved out of problematic time slots, the critics and analysts say.

Warner Bros.’ A to Z on NBC is a romantic comedy starring Ben Feldman as lovelorn Andrew and Cristin Milioti as Zelda, the girl he likes who’s less convinced they should be together.

TV pundits have mixed opinions about the show. But no one doubts its time slot could kill it. A to Z will lead out of Universal Television’s critically panned Bad Judge with Kate Walsh on Thursdays.

Equally troublesome for A to Z is that it will directly compete with ABC’s hit drama Scandal and CBS’s Thursday Night Football.

Twentieth Century Fox Television’s Cristela with comedian Cristela Alonzo is also liked by TV critics. But its Friday time slot leading out of the seemingly incompatible Twentieth sitcom Last Man Standing with Tim Allen could be its undoing.

Cristela is the first broadcast network sitcom to star a Hispanic woman. Alonzo plays a law student who’s living in Dallas with her sister and her sister’s family.

“It gets off to a rough start,” Bianco says. “But Cristela Alonzo is so charming that, if the network can do this right, I have high hopes for it.”

Fox also has a sitcom with some potential. Universal Television’s Mulaney stars Saturday Night Live alum John Mulaney as an aspiring comedian.

“He is funny,” says Adgate. “People compare him to [Jerry] Seinfeld, which are big shoes to fill. But Fox is going to promote it throughout the NFL season. And it’s in a good time slot — it’s leading out of Family Guy” on Sundays.

NPR TV critic Eric Deggans thinks Sony’s Marry Me on NBC is a good show, but not good enough to run the primetime gauntlet.

“I like the show a lot,” he says. “But I also think it’s the show that will have the most trouble making it. It seems like romantic comedies have a hard time finding an audience, even when they are good.”

The critics and analysts are assigning long odds to the other three new sitcoms: Bad Judge, ABC Studios’ Manhattan Love Story on ABC and Warner Bros.’ Selfie on ABC.

TV stations could use some sitcom hits. The pipeline for new off-network sitcoms is weak all the way into the 2017-18 season, with only a handful of modest hits debuting the next few years. Among them is Warner Bros.’ Mike & Molly this season and 2 Broke Girls in 2015-16.

And even if there are some hits this season, stations will have to wait their turn.

“The studios go directly to cable,” says Carroll. “If they can get a cable deal after a season or two, they’re going to do that. Once they do that, then they take it into broadcast syndication.”