S&P Global: Solid Retrans Rev Through ’23

Retransmission consent fees will continue to grow steadily over the next several years with virtual MVPDs (v-MVPDs) — DirecTV Now, Playstation Vue and the like — becoming significant contributors to the TV station revenue stream, according to the latest projection from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Retrans will amount to $9.3 billion this year and grow to $12.8 billion in 2023, the research says. Those figures include $100 million and $800 million, respectively, from the v-MVPDs.

The research also shows broadcasters’ reliance on retrans. This year the carriage fees will account for 30% of total station revenue; in 2023 they will account for 35%.

The numbers are big and getting bigger, but they are only a fraction of the fees MVPDs pay to basic cable networks and regional sports networks. According to the research, the fees to cable programmers will amount to $46.9 billion this year. Broadcasters’ retrans revenue of $9.3 billion will be just 19.9% of the cable programmers’ take.

In 2020, the cable fees grow to $55 billion; retrans fees will grow to $11.4 billion but they will still be just 20.7% of the cable total.