TVB, NAB To Focus On Sales Outlook, Ideas

Two upcoming conferences ought to give a good indication of how broadcasters will fare as the economy continues to gasp for air.

The Television Bureau of Advertising’s annual TVB Forward Conference on Thursday (Sept. 16) in New York, with around 300 attendees, will look for the vital signs of an economic recovery and prospects for growth in the digital arena.

Then, next week, from Sept. 23 to Sept. 25 in Scottsdale, Ariz., the National Association of Broadcasters hosts its annual Small Market Television Exchange, where executives from stations in markets 76 and smaller meet to swap ideas and strategies to coax more ad dollars out of locales where mom-and-pop merchants supply much of stations’ bread and butter.

For all stations, a point of major profit — and continuing concern — is the auto industry. The car business is coming off its slowest August in 28 years and Standard & Poor’s last week trimmed its estimate of new vehicle sales by 200,000, to 11.3 million.  At the TVB conference, Steve Finlay, editor of Ward’s Dealer Business, is due to give his estimate of car sales for 2011.

Adam Armbruster, partner at Red Bank, N.J.-based Eckstein, Summers, Armbruster & Co., who will be on the same panel with Finlay, said snagging a car buyer now takes 20% longer than it did two years ago.

A car buyer may visit seven dealerships, make nine phone calls, send 14 e-mails, and now, perhaps, have 15-20 “live chats” over the Internet before getting to the deal. “Consumers are savvy,” he said. “It’s so easy to do virtual shopping.” 

Armbruster’s consulting firm is urging dealers to become better retailers with stations’ help. Television is still the way to go, in a careful combination with the Internet and other advertising, he said. “Everybody wants to say television is yesterday’s medium, but it still blows all other media away,” he said. 

Certainly, television doesn’t have to convince politicians of what it can do. Along with cars, political advertising will be major focal points of the TVB conference.

Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group and one of the featured TVB panelists, estimates $3 billion will be spent on TV political advertising in local markets this year, $500 million more than just two years ago.

The blood sport of political advertising, Tracey notes, is unique because “it’s the only advertising category I know of that will spend the most it has on the least number of people left to influence.”

As the election nears, political operatives will buy whatever they can find and Tracey has this advice for stations: “If you can find an extra half hour or an hour for a newscast, now’s the time to do it. That’s beachfront advertising property for a candidate.”

Two unknowns about the November elections could change his forecast, up or down, Tracey said. “I may add the capitulation factor,” he said. If incumbents feel it’s hopeless and don’t want to fall into debt, they may quit early and the spending falls, he said.

The other unknown is what impact the Citizens United decision will have on spending. That Supreme Court ruling opened the door for heavy spending by corporations and unions. If it comes, it will probably comes late, Tracey said.

With so many seats in contention this year, it figures to be a great advertising year for stations in big states and small burgs. It’s those flyover states that the NAB small market conference addresses, in what seems to be an idea swap meet to come up with selling strategies. Over 400 are expected, a record.

“I think during this recession, there’s been a lack of confidence that good things are going to happen,” said Tom Ray, EVP of Jim Doyle and Associates, a TV sales consulting firm. “Fear on behalf of the advertiser, and fear on behalf of the media company.”

Ray, who will speak to the small market executives, said in the first part of the year, broadcasters were cautiously optimistic, but their mood began to darken this summer as the economy failed to strengthen. “All of a sudden, you’d ask how things were going and you’d get a different response,” he said.  “The spigot turned off.”

Ray said that on balance, small market sales are getting better. But the tough sales environment means station sales executives and businesses need to find new ways to sell. At the conference, he’ll be extolling what he termed “the offer-driven campaign” in which the retailer promotes a specific special feature other merchants can’t match.

In Jonesboro, Ark., he marveled, a flooring company for years has offered a 60-day “walk-on-it warranty” that allows a consumer to try out a floor. Until now, it’s never advertised the policy, he said. Telling consumers about it turned around the business.

Armbruster made the same point about car dealers that may offer special services to buyers. “But a lot of times, you don’t find out about that until after you’ve bought the car.”

Borrowing a concept he says he learned from the 2007 book Duct Tape Marketing by John Jantsch, Ray is a proponent of “the astonishing offer” — a marketable and unique claim that grabs consumer. But he acknowledged that during the recession, “The price of the ‘astonishing offer’ has gone up and up. Nowadays, 25% off is not very astonishing. Kohl’s taught us you’ve got to do better than that.”

The NAB meeting will also include some sales training sessions for small market executives and a look at how some national restaurant chains are adding local spot instead of buying cable for their campaigns.

The TVB conference will start with a look at the overall economy, with Beth Ann Bovino, senior economist at Standard & Poors, and Marci Ryvicker, from Wells Fargo’s equity research firm department.

Shelly Palmer, president of Shelly Palmer Media will moderate a panel on the outlook for digital media, which some broadcasters suppose will become a major revenue driver in the years to come.