TV News Check
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Pivotal Research Group estimates that traditional, linear local TV broadcast advertising — excluding political ad revenues — will sink 2.2% in 2017, to $15 billion. This will be followed by another 4% decline in 2018 to $14.4 billion; a 4.2% decline in 2019 to $13.8 billion; a 4.5% drop to $13.2 billion in 2020; and a 4.7% pullback to $12.6 billion in 2021.
This article was originally posted on mediapost.com
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Like I said -5%/year ..at least for the future..for Broadcsat TV…Thats a 25% drop in 5 years..They don’t have the digital plans to overcome this..Many people will continue to leave this business and find better businesses to be in especially with all the pressure and continues unreal expectations that will follow from the corporate hacks..many who never sold a spot in their lives and who leveraged their companies to the hilt
Investors are assuming (hoping) that increases in retrans revenue will offset no growth in core local ad revenue. It’s rent seeking at its finest…as if the MSO’s had bottomless pockets and weren’t battling cord cutting at the same time…there are no winners in this space.
Net retrans. $ will be flat at best over the next five years. Modest increases (gun to head), offset by cord cutting/OTA.
Well stated researcher! And it will be interesting listening to the spin makers of these corporations trying to minimize all of this.
I would assume Nexstar and Sinclair already have the answers to this loss of revenue. Difficult time to be a GM or SM for these corporations and deal with the regional experts as they tell you how to run the station. Retrans was a wonderful revenue stream to offset the loss of network comp but digital is still a work in process after all of these years. Broadcast and MSO’s need each other now more than ever. Should be interesting.
Nexstar..are you kidding me??? That leadership or should I say lack of it has no idea..They have had the bankers in their pocket and now they are sitting there saying this “pro forma” is not going to work..The same for Gray and others…Hope they all have a plan B other than cut their expenses..because including their so-called digital offerings there will be no top line growth including political which won’t be half of what companies like Kantar and Borrell are estimating.