YouTube TV is not only the fastest-growing virtual pay TV provider with an estimated 6.9 million subscribers, but has surpassed Dish Network (6.7 million), and now has become the fourth-largest of any pay TV provider of any kind, says MoffettNathanson Research. YouTube TV has grown 35% year-over-year (at just over 5.1 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2022).
Given the TV ad slowdown so far this year, as well as some content reductions, Disney/Comcast-owned Hulu is projected to see a 10% decline to $3.12 billion this year vs. 2022, according to new estimates from MoffettNathanson Research. However, the analysts project Hulu’s ad business will 5% rise to $3.27 billion next year, and another 5% to $3.44 billion in 2025.
With a strong probability of a recession to start by the end of year, according to many analysts, a new estimate projects that a downturn in the economy could drive a 9.6% decline in TV advertising this year to $78 billion, according to MoffettNathanson Research. An estimate with no recession projects total TV advertising would rise 6% to $86 billion — from $81 billion in 2021.
Key TV viewership losses accelerated in the second quarter, with double-digit percentage declines for both broadcast and cable networks. MoffettNathanson Research says Nielsen C3 viewership among 18-49 viewers in the second quarter of 2017 in primetime sank 12% for broadcast and cable networks — following an 8% decline in the first quarter. Broadcast networks fared worse than cable in the second three months of this year.
While total traditional U.S. advertising has kept pace with rising digital media advertising for the last few quarters, it had a tougher period recently., according to MoffettNathanson Research.
With Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman officially out, analysts are renewing calls for Viacom and CBS to recombine and for Viacom to sell off the struggling Paramount.
Exclusives
Sports, news, competition shows and latenight programs now account for between half and three-quarters of the Big Four’s gross ratings points, according to a new MoffettNathanson report. NBC, home of Sunday Night Football and The Voice, is most heavily reliant on live — for better or worse.
A new study from MoffettNathanson Research says “while we estimate profits to accelerate as retrans continues to ramp [over the next five years], we worry about the undercurrent of ad trends and subscriber declines.” And those ad trends aren’t good.
Near Flat 3Q TV Ad Revenue Gains Expected
Against the backdrop of TV ratings’ continued decline — anywhere from 5% to 10% — TV advertising revenues are expected to remain near flat for the third-quarter reporting period — partly due to growing advertising inventory supplies.
Total day commercial ratings among broadcast networks continue to decline among some key viewers this past season. Season-to-date total day C3 ratings (commercial ratings plus three days of time-shifting) among 18-49 viewers witnessed an 8% decline this season to 4.3 million viewers, according to MoffettNathanson Research from Nielsen data.
Broadcast TV 1Q Ad Sales Still Seen Down
First-quarter U.S. domestic national TV advertising still appears to be “disappointing,” according to one analysis. MoffettNathanson Research now expects that national TV advertising will decline 8.6% in the first quarter to $9.16 billion — a slightly better forecast than its earlier 8.9% estimate, but “still a disappointing number,” say the authors.
A new study by MoffettNathanson Research finds that new OTT services like Dish Network’s Sling TV that offer no or limited broadcast networks aren’t likely to be able to “attract a sizable customer base.”
The debate is over, or should be, MoffettNathanson Research’s Michael Nathanson says: Advertisers are shifting spending to online video at the expense of traditional TV programming that isn’t “essential” — meaning live sports and events, hit scripted shows, and cable shows that appeal to hard-to-reach audiences.
U.S. TV Ad Spend To Spike 6.6% This Year
The U.S. advertising market will continue to have a strong year — thanks to strong first-quarter gains, especially from NBC’s Sochi Olympics. MoffettNathanson Research maintains its estimate for the U.S. ad market, climbing 6.2% this year to $149.4 billion. Internet display and search advertising will grow 15%, with total TV spending — the biggest ad spending revenue platform, with about a 50% share — 6.6% higher.
