National TV advertising in June declined 9% to $3.2 billion — a much smaller decline than the two previous months, according to Standard Media Index. In April, in the thick of the COVID-19 pandemic downturn, there was a massive loss of 28%, followed by a 19% decline in May. Overall, the second quarter witnessed a 19% decline in the March to June period.
As it has for the past two years, Yellow Tail will advertise nationally during the Super Bowl by buying local time on CBS stations across the country. The strategy has been a winner for the winery, but not a model that other national advertisers have followed.
Dave Morgan: “Did you know that the average price across all national TV advertising in the U.S. is less than $2.50 CPM? In fact, $2.26, to be more exact. Are you surprised by how low that number is?”
Third-quarter national TV advertising was hit with double-digit declines, according to one industry report — with an estimate of a slight increase in the current fourth quarter. MoffettNathanson Research estimates third-quarter TV network advertising to be off 10% —with Nielsen C3 18-49 primetime viewership sinking 14%.
But much of those gains went to lower CPM cable TV shows. Standard Media Index — now modeling the entire national TV ad market based on data from 70% of media agency bookings — says the national TV ad market was driven by cable networks, which rose 6.5% during the period. Broadcast national TV was flat from the second quarter a year ago — with the top four broadcast networks slipping 2.5%.
At about the time big agencies and advertisers were wrapping up their upfront ad deals for the 2016-17 season, near-term demand for national TV advertising time was inching up, according to the most recent monthly data from the RealCost Index, a collaboration of MediaPost and SQAD indexing the average cost of national TV advertising time.
Prices in the national TV advertising marketplace appeared to be firming up along with tightening scatter market conditions heading into 2016-17 upfront negotiations. The average cost-per-thousand (CPM) of national TV advertising inventory rose to an index of 145 in April, according to the RealCost Index, a collaboration of MediaPost and SQAD’s Netcosts services benchmarking national TV advertising costs.
Although total national TV advertising grew 4% in the first quarter — with broadcast networks outperforming cable networks — there is concern about the second half of 2016.