TV ad revenue

Despite some ratings declines and mixed public opinion about the NFL overall, TV revenues for the league were up 2% in September versus the same month a year ago. TV advertising pulled in $513 million versus $504 million in September 2016.

First-quarter national TV advertising revenue is expected to inch up 1% during the coming quarterly earnings reports for media companies. MoffettNathanson Research says that will mean a bump to $9.56 billion from $9.469 billion for the same period of a year ago — slightly down from earlier estimates of a 1.2% gain. Broadcast networks are expected to gain 1.7% to $4.215 billion, with cable networks climbing 0.4% to $5.345 billion.

Big TV/film-media companies will continue to lower their revenue exposure to advertising in the coming years. According to MoffettNathanson Research, eight top companies — CBS, Walt Disney, Discovery Communications, 21st Century Fox, Time Warner, Viacom, AMC Networks and Scripps Networks Interactive — are expected to collectively see just a 1% increase in revenues in 2015 to $40.1 billion, down from 3% last year — when it was $39.5 billion.

TV revenue in the U.S. will decrease by 1.4%, Magna Global said, while digital media will increase 15.5% to reach 31% market share. Mediocre spending in the U.S. was the result of a number of factors, including bad weather that hit retail, restaurants and automotive dealers early in the year, as well as heightened interest in digital.

In a “POV” piece written this week by top Magna forecaster Vincent Letang, he writes that digital will outgrow TV a year earlier in the U.S. than the firm initially thought — “mostly because Magna downgraded the long-term television advertising projection based on poor performance of television this year in terms of viewing and ad sales.”

Television advertising dollars will continue to steadily rise in the coming years, while digital video advertising spending will initially see much faster growth. New estimates are that the entire TV ad spending market — broadcast and cable networks, syndication, and local TV — will get to $66.3 billion by the end of this year, up 2.8% over 2012, according to eMarketer.

The analysis today from Nomura Equity Research’s Michael Nathanson could dampen the mood at TV networks as we head into the big upfront ad sales season. The most startling discovery: total ad revenues didn’t grow at all in 2012 at the Big Media companies he tracks. Declines at Viacom and News Corp outweighed gains at Discovery and Scripps Networks while sales were “essentially flat” at CBS, Disney, and Time Warner.

Economic effects from Japan’s disasters and a weak job market have helped put the brakes on the year’s strong start for media firms. Early in 2011, economists predicted that TV advertising revenue in the U.S. would increase 6% this year to an all-time high. But during the summer the TV ad market cooled considerably.

Television advertising revenues will regain their pre-recession levels next year, with Internet advertising having little to no effect on it. TV ad dollars, which hit $59.0 billion at the end of 2010, will climb to $64.5 billion next year. Last year’s strong growth over a weak recessionary market’s 2009 was 9.7%. This year, the growth — at 2.5% — will be more modest, reaching $60.5 billion. Internet advertising, the second-biggest ad category, will reach $28.5 billon by the end of 2011.