North Carolina TV Sure Political Winner In ’16

North Carolina’s television stations received good news in late September when the state moved up its primary elections to March 15 next year. That shift — two weeks after Super Tuesday and about two months earlier than before — may give the state a far more critical role in the nation’s selection of Republican and Democratic presidential nominees.

If so, it could mean even more political advertising dollars for stations in the Tar Heel state, which were already figuring on an unusually bountiful year from spending around the gubernatorial and senatorial races and, possibly, the general presidential election.

In fact, North Carolina is likely to become either the No. 2 or No. 3 state — behind Florida and possibly Ohio — in political revenue next year, according to Elizabeth Wilner, SVP of political advertising for Kantar Media’s political unit CMAG.

“We may see the most expensive governor’s race of the cycle, so we could see a massive amount of statewide spending for that, and then you’ll see some — and possibly a lot — of spending on the Senate race, and on the presidential level it’s going to be incredibly expensive,” she said.

North Carolina is a potential battleground station in the presidential contest, Wilner added, “although among the states that are considered tossups in the presidential race right now, you could probably put a thumb on the scale for North Carolina to lean Republican.”

The gubernatorial race could be a real nail biter. It pits the sitting governor, Pat McCrory, against the state attorney general, Roy Cooper, well known for dismissing the rape case against the Duke University men’s lacrosse players in 2007.

In the Senate contest, incumbent Republican Richard Burr has at least one viable Democratic challenger, Chris Rey, mayor of Spring Lake, N.C. Several others could step in, including Heath Shuler, a former U.S. Representative and one-time NFL quarterback.

“This is the first time since 2008 that we’ve had three major elections on the ballot,” said Martin Kifer, assistant professor of political science and director of the Survey Research Center at High Point University in High Point, N.C.

“From a revenue standpoint, we’re going to see a significant increase in dollars [over prior elections],” said Deborah Collura, GM of WCNC Charlotte. “People are saying North Carolina is going to be a big swing state. And the PACs will be spending more money than ever.”

Wilner estimates North Carolina TV’s total political take will be about $300 million, with most of it going to spot TV. 

While it’s not predictive of what’s going to happen next year, it’s noteworthy that the North Carolina U.S. Senate race in 2014 — the most expensive Senate race in state history — generated $90 million in spot TV revenue. And stations drew $75 million from the presidential race in 2012, in which Romney prevailed, according to Kantar.

“My biggest fear for 2016 is that independent expenditure money comes in and buys up so much time that the stations are nearly sold out,” said Tim McKay, director of client services for the agency Media Partners, based in Raleigh.

By winning the state in 2008, President Obama put the state in play in presidential elections, even though Romney brought it back to the red column in 2012.

Moving the primary adds a new dimension. The earlier it is held, the more likely it is that nominees for the major parties will not have been settled, that candidates will still be looking to collect delegates through primary wins.

A recent poll by High Point University shows that at present North Carolinians don’t give any presidential candidate a favorability rating of more than 50%. The survey, conducted in late September and early October, found that the only contenders polling above 40% are Joe Biden (who has yet to throw his hat into the ring) and Republican hopeful Ben Carson. Hillary Clinton is polling at about 35%; Donald Trump at 30%.

“If it looks like Donald Trump has a chance of getting the nomination, I think you’ll see major Republican players — not just the party itself — spending a tremendous amount of money to try and defeat him,” said Jason Husser, assistant professor of political science at Elon University, in Elon, N.C., and assistant director of the school’s polling unit.

“The wild card is whether both the presidential nominees are polling well enough in this state,” said Mark Gentner, GM of WITN Greenville-New Bern-Washington. “If one of them pulls out [their ad spending], the other one isn’t going to spend either.”

Three markets in the state — Charlotte (DMA 22); Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill (DMA 25) and Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem (DMA 46) — usually  account for 76% of the voters and will, consequently, get most of the money.

The others are Greenville-Spartanburg, S.C.-Asheville, N.C. (DMA 37); Greenville-New Bern-Washington (DMA 99) and Wilmington (DMA 130). Greenville-Spartanburg comes up short because much of its audience is in South Carolina.

Aware that President Obama carried the state in 2008 because of a big turnout of African-Americans, Democrats will likely target markets with large African-American communities.

“The triangle media market, which is Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, is the 25^th largest market in population, but it’s the 11^th largest for the African-American vote,” noted Media Partner’s McKay.

“There’s already been some issue/PAC money that’s been spent in [Charlotte]. The first one out of the gate, and the only one I’m aware of, is a conservation group that’s putting out ads that are anti-Burr, because he’s pro offshore drilling,” said WITN’s Gentner.

James Himes, GM of WGHP High Point, said he expects more PAC money than ever before. “Since the Citizens United Supreme Court decision, the percentage of candidate money has shrunk, and issue money has increased. I would expect that trend to continue, as well as total dollars spent.”

The broadcasters see the gubernatorial race as potentially more lucrative than the Senate race. “It is highly contested, and both candidates are well funded,” said Steve Hammel, VP-GM of WRAL-WRAZ Raleigh, adding that he was uncertain about the prospects for the Senate race.

“I don’t think that Burr will have a difficult time, and that will be apparent to the people who donate to campaigns and the PACs,” said Gary McNair, GM of WECT Wilmington, N.C., and president of the North Carolina Association of Broadcasters.

Most station executives contacted for this story said their stations are unlikely to increase their public affairs or news programs as the elections draw near, despite the huge demand by politicos for such shows. The executives believe they already are serving the public and the candidates with a generous amount of programming in those genres.

But WCNC’s Collura is thinking differently. “We know that all eyes are on this election. Wherever we need to add more programming and carve out more time for [political] advertisers, we’ll do that.”