Media advertising analysts Ken Goldstein of Kantar says that should be a record take for local TV next year, driven by the proliferation of Super PACs spawned by last year’s Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
Political Ads To Bring Stations $2.5B-$3.3B
Local TV broadcasters should reap between $2.5 billion and $3.3 billion in political advertising in 2012. That’s the latest word from Ken Goldstein, who tracks political spending for Kantar Media CMAG and who spoke at the TVB Forward conference in New York this morning. Even at the low end of that range, Goldstein’s projection puts broadcasters in record territory.
Television’s take from the category was $2.1 billion in 2008 and $2.4 billion in 2010 and that included a relatively small amount that went to national broadcasting and cable networks. How much local TV ultimately receives depends on how much candidates and interest groups are able to raise, Goldstein said.
His current best estimate is that the fundraising will yield between $6 billion and $7 billion. If precedent holds, he said, local TV’s share of the total raised will be between 42%-43% and 47%-48%.
Part of the anticipated increase in political spending can be traced to the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling in 2010, which is spawning numerous so-called Super PACs that may raise money from many sources and spend it freely on behalf of candidates and causes.
Goldstein said that local TV remains a favorite medium for political advertisers because they can use it to reach potential voters who are not locked into watching programs that share their political views. “They are not watching their local news because it has a particular partisan bent.”