Study: Repack Could Take More Than Decade

Repacking the TV band following the incentive auction next year could take up to 11 years and cost as much as $3 billion, far longer and costlier than earlier estimates, according to a new study commissioned by the NAB and submitted to the FCC last Friday.

Those estimates are the study’s worst case, presuming that the FCC, in clearing 84 MHz of TV spectrum, buys up to 249 stations and has to repack — that is move to new channels — as many as 1,200 stations.

The best case is if the FCC buys some 450 stations in clearing 120 MHz and has to repack only 800 stations. In that scenario, it would take eight years to move the channels at a cost of $2 billion.

The new estimates do not sync with current government policy based in part on the 2013 FCC-commissioned Widelity Report. The FCC is giving stations just 39 months after the auction to move to their new channels, and Congress has earmarked just $1.7 billion of the auction proceeds to reimburse broadcasters for the move.

In a letter the FCC, NAB General Counsel Rick Kaplan says the study shows that even under ideal conditions no more than 445 stations could be moved prior to the 39-month deadline. “This is not a reasonable approach….The consequences of failing to meet that deadline…would be to force the offending broadcaster off the air, and deprive its viewers of free and over-the-air service.”

Kaplan proposed that the FCC wait until after the auction when it will know how many stations need to be moved before setting a deadline that is “aggressive, but reasonable.” It should be based on a “regional transition plan that will allow for the most expeditious, efficient repack possible,” he added.

Reacting to the study, Scott Bergmann, VP of regulatory affairs for CTIA, which represents wireless carriers, says the industry opposes any effort to stretch out the repack.”The success of the auction assumes carriers will bid substantial sums, and that cannot happen absent certainty that they will receive timely access to the spectrum purchased. 

“The FCC’s current repacking process is fair and achievable for the broadcast industry, has been affirmed by the D.C. Circuit as reasonable and even extends six months past the timeline suggested by NAB in its own proposals to the FCC during the rulemaking process.”

NAB spokesman Dennis Wharton defended the study as “unassailable” and said the “auction can and should go forward without an arbitrary 39-month deadline. Such flexibility will not slow the auction, but would ensure that no broadcaster is forced to go dark if a timely repack proves impossible.”

Paid for by the NAB, the study was conducted by Digital Tech Consulting (Myra Moore and Anita Wallgren, principals) along with RF experts Jay Adrick, Peter Barnett and Eric Moerman. During the DTV transition in the late 2000s, Wallgren administered the $2 billion D-to-A converter box program for the federal government.

The study is based on an analysis of what’s needed to move stations to new channels and the resources available to do it — RF consulting engineers, tower structural engineers, lawyers, antenna manufacturers, RF component manufacturers, transmitter manufacturers, RF transmission system installers and tower and antenna installers.

According to the study, demand from hundreds of stations at the same time will quickly overwhelm the resources, resulting in long backlogs. “The two most significant bottlenecks in the process will be the small number of qualified crews for implementing tower modifications and installing antennas and transmission lines, and an anticipated shortage of antennas,” the study says.

Only two companies make antennas for the U.S. market, Dielectric and ERI, the study notes.

The study breaks down the transition process into two parts. The first phase covers from when the FCC announces the new channel assignments to when stations have requested construction permits for their new channels and reimbursement budgets. The second phase covers from when stations have received their CPs to completion of their moves.

In the worst case scenario (1,200 moving), the first phase could take 21 months and the second, nine-and-a-half years. In the best case (800 stations, the first phase could take 15 months and the second, more than six years.

Among the reason the repack will be costlier than thought before is because broadcasters are expected to opt for new solid-state UHF transmitters, even at the higher power level, the study says. The solid-state units are pricier, but easier and less expensive to maintain than IOT (tube) transmitters, it says.

At the top end of the power range, the study says, an 80 kW transmitter costs just over $2 million to buy and nearly $70,000 to install.

How much individual stations will have to spend to make a channel switch depends to a large extent on the power, the study says.

All in, a high-power 60 kW station will have to spend $3.6 million with a backup transmitter or $2.8 million without. A 40 kW medium-power station will have to pay $2.5 million with a backup or $2 million without. And a 5 kW low-power station will have to spend just $400,000 with no backup, but such stations are expected to account for only about 10% of those involved in the repack.