Study: U.S. TV Ad Rev To Grow 6.3% In ’11

MagnaGlobal has published the latest edition of its US Advertising Revenue Forecasts through 2016. It predicts that traditional TV and older forms of digital media will continue to grow rapidly.  “We expect TV advertising to rise by 6.3% on a normalized basis during 2011 and digital display to grow by 11.6%.” 

The report summarizes that “although underlying economic challenges persist — primarily the continuing weakness in unemployment rate, the absence of a meaningful pick-up in the overall economy and constrained deployments of capital among businesses of all kinds – we continue to expect U.S. media industry advertising revenues to grow by 3.1% during 2011, excluding the impact of political and Olympic advertising.

MagnaGlobal  said this is in line with its revised estimates for 2010, which it estimated will end up growing by a similar amount.  Total advertising levels remain below those observed in 2003, with the industry’s size likely to equate to $173 billion in revenues this year. Including the impact of political and Olympic advertising, total advertising will only grow by 1.9% during 2011, lower than the 4.3% it expects for 2010.

It said that the totals “are held back by deep structural weakness in printed media, which weakens with every passing quarter” (newspapers, magazines, directories and direct mail will likely decline by 2.9% during 2011).

By contrast, MagnaGlobal said, “digital and broadcast media continue to grow rapidly,” as does the outdoor business (digital, TV, radio and outdoor collectively will grow by 6.9% during 2011).

There are many new platforms growing at even faster rates.  Its updated data-sets now break out historical estimates and forecasts for mobile advertising, online video, cinema and digital out-of-home.

“Interest in mobile advertising has been catalyzed among large advertisers over the past year, and we expect growth of 60.1% during 2011,” the study said. 

Online video “has achieved meaningful scale, and is now commonly used by a wide range of advertisers; growth should approximate 26.8% this year.”

Emerging outdoor media will also outpace the rest of the outdoor industry as inventory is increasingly monetized; we expect the sub-sector to grow by 17.4%.

Paid search will also fare well, rising by 11.1% during the same period. 

The full release is available as a free download with registration at www.magnaglobal.com.