Kantar Lowers Station Political Take To $2.8B

Kantar Media/CMAG has revised its projected numbers for political ad spend downwards. Its update expects that TV stations will garner about $2.8 billion from politicos; local cable and satellite will receive $750 million; and cable/broadcast networks $100 million.

That’s according to Steve Passwaiter, VP and GM of Kantar Media/CMAG, speaking at the TVB Forward conference in New Yorkthis morning.

For stations, that’s a $500 million drop from what the research firm had originally expected. In July 2015, Kantar projected that TV stations would get about $3.3 billion in political spending this year, with local cable at $800 million and the networks at $300 million.

Earlier in the day, Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker also lowered her projection for political from $3 billion-plus to $2.65 billion. Despite the negative reports from Passwaiter and Ryvicker, TVB President Steve Lanzano continued to insist that political would exceed $3 billion.

The $2.8 billion figure is just a hair better than what stations received from political advertisers four years ago. Kantar calculates local TV pulled in $2.7 billion in 2012.

At the presidential spending level, the comparison of spending this year with 2012 is dramatically different. Passwaiter noted that four years ago, Mitt Romney spent $550 million on general election ads, whereas Trump has spent $78 million to date. The recent news that Trump is placing $140 million in advertising buys is a work in progress, he said. “So the $78 million number will go higher, but it won’t get to $550 million.”

There’s also a big difference on the Democratic front. In 2012, President Obama spent $500 million, whereas Hillary Clinton has so far spent $325 million. Whether she’ll reach Obama’s level is questionable.

“Everyone has rallied around $1 billion for digital this year,” Passwaiter noted, adding he thinks that’s doable. “There’s a little digital being bought at the local level, so you guys are participating,” he told the crowd of TV station sales people. He noted that TV stations are still at the top of the political ad spend food chain. But all the digital media companies are fighting hard for dollars in Washington.

See all of TVNewsCheck’s TVB forward coverage here.