While a few minor deals are still being negotiated, Media Dynamics says it can estimate ad spending and CPMs for the 2022-23 primetime upfront since “these will not substantially alter the projections.” It appears, MDI says, that the five broadcast TV networks took in $9.9 billion in primetime sales — up a modest 6.4% from the previous upfront — while the cable channels sold $10.2 billion, a 5.2% increase. In total, the “linear TV” upfront was up 5.8%, to $20.1 billion.
The study says sellers did better when it came to CPMs for 30-second commercials, averaging a gain of 9.6% for the broadcast TV networks and 6.6% for cable, however these increases were well below last year’s spectacular hikes due to buyer concerns about the looming threat of an economic recession as well as the shifting of considerable amounts of national ad spend to streaming venues. Linear TV sellers were willing to trade off smaller CPM increases for their linear TV platforms in exchange for increases — often at higher CPMs — for their streaming services.
It should be noted, MDI says, “that the primetime upfront figures we are reporting do not reflect the totality of the upfront. Upfront ad sales by the broadcast TV networks as well as cable channels and national program syndicators in other dayparts (early a.m., daytime, early evening, prime access and latenight) amounted to $10 billion-$12 billion, while the broadcast TV networks and some cable channels also sold about $2 billion of digital ad time, mostly in the form of sponsored episodes of primetime shows on their websites.
“Finally, approximately $5 billion-$6 billion went to upfront buys on CTV/AVOD platforms. So, the total upfront involves about $36 billion-$40 billion, not just the $20 billion that the broadcast TV networks and cable channels garnered for their ‘linear TV’ primetime programs.”
Commenting on the 2022-23 upfront, Media Dynamics President Ed Papazian said: “A definite softness in cable sales relative to broadcast, as many buyers felt that they were better off diverting fairly large sums to streaming venues, despite their higher CPMs, as a hedge against future scatter market pricing for broadcast prime.” Papazian further pointed out the continuing bias against cable that is part of the story: “Cable’s CPM advantages aside, many advertisers feel that the erosion of cable’s reach due to cord cutting, the perceived lower quality of much of its program fare, plus over commercialization, makes it less desirable than broadcast TV network prime placements and what can be had on CTV/AVOD.”
Total TV Dimensions 2022 and MDI Direct subscribers will receive a more detailed report on the 2022-23 upfront in the Aug. 2 issue of TVD Alert. MDI’s proprietary upfront CPM-CPP estimates will be released Sept. 15 in the annual ACES report, followed by CPMTrack on Sept. 30.
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